Wednesday, March 2, 2011

AMZN: What Now?

AMZN stopped today at a very inconvenient place for me. I've been short AMZN since Friday, when it couldn't retake 50-DMA, which also happened to be about the mid bollinger band. And after the negative divergence on Nasdaq played out on Tuesday, I remain short AMZN.

But today the stock managed (barely) to retake the bottom trendline of the expanding, rising wedge that's been forming since September 2010. The volume was lower than the previous two days. (I just noticed that it is right at the trendline in log scale.)

My target remains 200-DMA, about $152 ($20 from here), but slow stochastics (at 60) is also approaching the oversold territory (not there yet). I think I will have to watch how the stock handles the bottom trendline of the wedge to decide whether to bail here or hold.

A quick upsurge on a high volume, I'll bail. A struggle on a low volume, I'll hold. (I'm a chicken little.)

If I had paid attention to the slow stoch cross over, I could have shorted it at $187 or so, and covered right about now and moved on, even if there's money still on the table. Oh well.

By the way, my private unscientific indicator is getting worse - more spammers, more bickering, less posters. A big move is yet to come, it seems.

(Sure enough, the US stock futures are up big. Emini Dow up 71, Emini S&P up 9, Emini Nasdaq up 12. For what? No one knows..)

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