Possible Future for FAZ

by popular request...

Ran the same numbers for FAZ, triple-short financial ETF, a la "Possible Future for SKF" (previous post). Comparison of FAZ, IYF, and BKX, with stock prices and index value as of May 22.

I just did the Case 5, where BKX would run all the way to Sept-Oct 08 level, and reverse all the way back to March low. FAZ would be a 10-bagger if you caught it at top of BKX, and if BKX did indeed drop back down to March low. Otherwise, there will be easier money to be made elsewhere (until P3 hits... for more, go to ex-SKFer Daneric's blog).



The best case for FAZ would still be the one in which BKX corrects right now to March low without going up much. Then FAZ would be about $20.

Philadelphia Bank Index (BKX), Whither Goest Thou?

So much news has been focused on the banking sector of the economy, and the stock market's ups and downs, whether justified or not, are attributed to the sector.

So I took a look at Philadelphia Bank Index (BKX). This is a 6-month daily chart. I first drew black dotted lines after eyeballing where the support/resistance level might be. Then I put in the Fibonacci retracement lines from May high to March low (green lines). Fib lines pretty much agree with my black dotted lines.

Since the sentiment definitely turned negative and the market felt like crap last week, I fully expect the index to go down to the 1st support line = Fib 38.2% line from the top (or 61.8% from the bottom, whichever you want to perceive). It can go back to 50% line, as the line seem to connect both past resistance and recent support. If it goes down below the last support line (dotted black line), look out below.

Also take a note of the RSI. It crossed 50-line on Friday ever so slightly downward. It is about where the two support lines on RSI seem to converge. In other words, now what? and where?