Wednesday, March 9, 2011

S&P500: Triangle Pattern Can Break Either Way

So I was told more than 3 years ago. I distinctly remember when: December of 2007. The market topped in October that year, in retrospect of course. The market sharply corrected, and then sharply bounced back in late November, and was chopping back and forth in December, forming a symmetrical triangle.

"It could break either way", a trader told his followers. It was very clear which side he was expecting: Up. The direction was finally decided in January, and it was down. The trader told the followers it could backtest the trendline and maybe retake it. No it didn't. It went down, down, down.

So, when I saw a triangle pattern on the current S&P500 - different time scale altogether, mind you - and was told by another trader "It could break either way", all I would say is "Sure it could." My bias is down, but I'm not the one to underestimate what Ben Bernank can do for the stock market with daily $billions.

The top is S&P 500 daily chart from October 2007 to January 2008. The bottom is S&P 500 5-day 15-minute chart, ending today (3/9/2011):

If it breaks to the upside, fine. I'll get stopped out of AMZN short and VXX long. I'm not worried about gold and silver stocks, because my costs are so low.

BTW, Dr. Copper has decisively broken below the trendline today.

(I'll just keep my Yahoo MB indicator in mind... The jerk is still there, though spammers are disappearing quickly. Spammers seem to have sensed a change in direction.)


  1. Arev - did not relaize you had a blog until I saw you mention it on Kli's site. Nice site, I have added it to the blog list on my site. Hope that is OK with you.