Sunday, February 20, 2011

Thoughts at the End of a Long Weekend - A Big Turn in the Market?

I have an extremely unscientific indicator that has worked pretty well for predicting the direction of a next significant move in the stock market: Yahoo's stock MB for SKF.

When either of the following two happens, a significant market move may be near:

1. All of a sudden, a burst of new posters appear, peddling penny stocks, stock newsletters, winning strategies, etc.; or

2. A know-it-all jerk appears.

In both occasions, many long-time posters disappear, or post very infrequently.

When it is the case No.1, the market direction is usually down. The case No.2 can break either way, depending on which direction that jerk is proposing; in the past it often broke in the opposite direction.

As it so happens, the US stock futures are down big tonight, with Dow futures down 97 as of 11:29 PM EST, supposedly because of the "unrest" in Libya (it's a revolution).

But then it doesn't mean much to Ben and the Inkjets at the Fed. All they care about is how to pump the market using whatever means imaginable. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the futures go back to unchanged by the time the cash market opens tomorrow morning. J.P.Morgue seems to be very busy trying to suppress the price of silver, which has been beaten down from $34.40 to $33.40. (Friday's close was $32.52.) It is also trying to put gold down back below $1,400.

But my very unscientific gauge, Yahoo stock board, is flashing a warning sign that the market may be ready to move big, and I think it may be to the downside.

Whichever the direction may be, I'm pretty happy with what I've got - gold and silver shares, an iron ore company, a uranium company, and VXX. AMZN calls and KO calls will suffer if the direction is down, but I'm not too worried about them because positions are small.

Hold on to your seats...

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