Monday, February 28, 2011

Rebound to 61.8% Fib, Now What?

I should be getting used to it by now, but it never ceases to amaze me and sometimes nauseate me. The US stock market went up again today for no good reason other than Warren Buffett being bullish. Dow, S&P, Nasdaq all retraced back to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement; Dow and S&P past 61.8%, Nasdaq, barely. My short Amazon worked today, although I wish I had had enough money to put NFLX. Oh well. Can't win all the time.

So what now?Will it trace all the way back to the February 18 level and keep going up? I shouldn't be surprised, but as I said, it's nauseating, partly because it's been levitating like this for too long.

Here's the daily chart of Nasdaq. It was the weakest index today, along with Russell 2000 (so much for economic recovery and growth). I see negative signs - RSI, MACD and price in negative divergence, up-volume not as significant as down-volume, a hanging man formed today which could be a bearish reversal signal.

I am not shorting the market (just short AMZN), so if it keeps going up that should be good for my commodity stocks. If it corrects more seriously, that should be also good for my gold and silver stocks and VXX.

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