Thursday, May 14, 2009

S&P 500 Symmetry - Careful What You Wish For

Just last Friday as I was looking at the 1-year daily chart of S&P 500 Index, I thought: With the March 6, 2009 low as a head, the chart looks like a seagull in flight. At first I was looking only at about 2 months wing-span, one-month for each wing. Then I looked at 4 months span, and the symmetry still continued. Well, if this symmetry continues, the index should come back down to 875-880 area.

Well it did, almost. With yesterday's close, the index retreated to 883, and some kind of bump back to the trend line was created, just like the one back in early January.

If the symmetry goes further, this bird will start to look more like a bald eagle with its wing tips pointing downward. That means S&P will revisit November 08 low of 741 in about 4 to 6 weeks. I don't quite relish the prospect, but that will put a significant higher low on the index IF it stops there. (It may simply crash through it, instead of turning up.)

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