Friday, May 1, 2009

Ford revisited: stock refuses to come down to earth

Ford Motor (F) is hanging in there. After the gap-up spike on April 24 (closing price $5), instead of dropping right back down it's been holding above $5. It not only survived Thursday's news (Chrysler filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy) but it went up 7% to $5.98. Friday it succumbed to a lower volume selling and ended at $5.69, still higher than Thursday's open. That's impressive. Only 3 cents short of last September's high, before the October crash of the market.

This is all the more frustrating; when I bought Citigroup (C), at about the same price I could have gotten Ford instead. Citi has gone nowhere, and the only good thing I can say about the stock is that I haven't lost any money on my investment. I know it's no use saying, but can't help it: If only I had bought Ford! In the same time period that I have held C, Ford has gone up 120%. During that period, the only chance to buy in was April 21 if I was brave, when it hit the mid bollinger band and bounced, or the next day April 22 when it jumped back to the prior high of $4.41 on April 9.

IF the market keeps upward momentum (big IF) and F doesn't crash far below $5 (which is the gap-up day's closing price), and if I still think there's long-term upside to F, then $5 would be the buy price where the stock price would probably meet the mid bollinger band and the trend line from April 24.

One of my biggest "Fish That Got Away"...

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