Wednesday, May 6, 2009

It's a Melt-Up? Or Will It Melt-Down?

Ding ding ding...UPDATE: It was Melt-Up for today.

(2:00pm) Well, that was quite a ride in the final hour. Almost right on cue, sellers came in and brought the index down to 8440 area, only to have it melt up again and over 8500 mark in the last 3 minutes.
I didn't get out of any of my long positions. (Not that I wanted that way, necessarily, but the limit order didn't fill.) I'm so still letting them ride, one nervous day at a time. (OK, WFC sale was a panic. I got scared seeing the upside.)

(11:40am) In the face of uncertainty on just about anything. My pain today so far comes from not having covered my FAS calls that I wrote. It also hurts to see Wells Fargo (WFC) continue to go up.

Here's the intra-day 5-minute Dow Jones Index today. It may crash by the close, which is 1 hour and 40 minutes away, but looks strong so far.

Traders will probably exit their positions in financial stocks before tomorrow's stress test results, but nothing seems certain anymore these days.

But I can say this: in the past 4, 5 weeks as the market cautiously climbs up, technical analysis on stocks on the long side have started to work almost for the first time for me in a long time. Probably since May of last year.

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