Friday, May 22, 2009

The Market On the Edge, Again?

That's how it has felt like for the entire week. It is an uncomfortable feeling for bulls and bears, and those who go back and forth, because we now all know how the market crash feels like. I don't want to feel that again, but my want means scat, and I'd better be prepared.

Above is a Point & Figure chart (you can learn about it here) of Dow Jones Industrial.

It clearly shows where the resistance has been (= green line). XX bar hit the green line twice, indicating that was a double-top. And today, the index stopped right at the previous OO bar (= red line), indicating it is a double-bottom, for now. If it breaks down and extend O downward, I think that will be the trend and sentiment change, and you will see on the top left of the chart "Bearish Price Objective (preliminary)".

So the bare-bone chart (P&F) indeed shows the market is at a critical point. Make or break. The market that turned on a dime back in March may be ready to turn the same way, except this time downward, again. The market sentiment is negative, it's in the middle of Mercury Retrograde, and Treasury Department is auctioning $162 billion worth of Treasuries next week. Under pressure, again...

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