Monday, June 1, 2009

Break Is To The Upside!! (For Now)

I don't get to say it often so I might as well say it while it lasts: I told you so, here. I also indicated the possibility here and here.

The market is rallying on the "less bad" news on ISM manufacturing index and GM bankruptcy ("the worst is behind us").

My target on Dow remains the same as I stated in this chart from May 17. The first target, the green-colored 50% Fibonacci retracement line around 8,800 is almost there (Dow is currently 8,732). My second target is the green 61.8% line which happens to be almost identical to the blue 38.2% line, around 9,400. At today's pace, 3 more days and we would get there, too.

Dow, by the way, is underperforming other major indices, up only 2.7%. Nasdaq is up 3%, S&P500 up 2.8%. S&P500's Point and Figure WEEKLY chart now indicates the price target at 1,130. The chart shows a pennant breakout, and taking out the prior resistance levels (red circles in the chart).

Despite the general market's significant advance, financials are vastly underperforming. Long-end Treasuries yields gapped up, and remain high. So all is not well. We'll see how this spurt holds for the day, and for the week.

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