Sunday, November 15, 2009

Japan's Nikkei Looks Sick

When Dow, All Ordinary, Hang Seng, BSE, just about every major index in the world jumped after the full moon in early September, Nikkei didn't join the party. It ended the month down. After the sharp correction worldwide in the second half of October, the indices are off to the races again after November full moon. Except Nikkei.

According to Bloomberg, currency traders are increasingly bearish on Japanese yen and betting against it, predicting 10% or more fall from the current level (around 90 yen/dollar). The new government (Democratic Party of Japan) is still learning its way in and around the system, but more government spending and falling tax revenue with a shrinking population doesn't augur well for their misguided efforts.

FXY is the Japanese yen ETF. EWJ is the ETF that tracks stocks on Tokyo Stock Exchange. You can short the ETFs, or buy put options on them if you share the bearish sentiment about the world's second largest economy.

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