Monday, April 27, 2009

VIX - the Fear Factor losing steam?

SKF blogger BS on the Market (link right column "SKF Bloggers") has a unique focus on VIX, Chicago Board of Option Exchange Volatility Index that measures market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. It is often considered a "fear gauge" in the market: higher the number, more volatile the market (= the market going down).

It hit the high of 89.53 on October 23, 2008, though the market low in October came a few days later. Since then, the successive peaks got lower and lower as the market descended lower, with a lower support at a trend line and all of which can be called "falling wedge formation". Lots of chartists call it that way, and since it is considered a bullish formation they see the market reversal to the downside imminent.
Even as I write, the market has descended into the negative territory...

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