Sunday, April 26, 2009

DBA and Hard Freeze in Oklahoma

DBA is an ETF that tracks agricultural commodity futures (sugar, corn, wheat, soybeans). I've been watching this along with other commodity stocks. After a strong surge after the December low, it doesn't seem to be going anywhere anytime soon. It hasn't participated much in the most recent surge in the market.

But this news may change that soon: Most of Oklahoma Wheat Crop Damaged.

Oklahoma, the 5th largest wheat producer in the US, was hit by hard freeze in early April. That has resulted in crop damage estimated between 40 to 96% of the crop, with the exception of Northern Oklahoma where damage is estimated to be only 15%.

A symmetrical triangle, I've learned, is usually a continuation pattern. If the previous trend before the formation of the triangle is down, then the break will be to the downside. If this is the case with DBA, it looks like it could potentially go down to $18. We'll find out soon enough, if the chart knows about Oklahoma freeze, Argentina drought, and Indian rain...

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