Sunday, April 4, 2010

Nasdaq Heading Back to Pre-Crash?

I continue to think Dow and S&P are heading to their respective 61.8% Fibonacci retracement area between 2007 October market top and 2009 March market bottom (Dow around 11,260, S&P around 1228) and have been sitting on my long positions.

And guess what. I totally missed the tech rally. I kept thinking, for example, AAPL (Apple Inc.) was a buy when it dropped to $190 in January. $190 was a support for several months. Didn't do anything. I still thought it was a buy at $217 (breakout point), and most recently at $228. I still think it is a buy on a pullback, but haven't done anything about it because I haven't been following Nasdaq as I used to and don't have a good feel for the index.

Nasdaq, after January swoon along with Dow and S&P which many traders and investors took as a sign of imminent severe downturn in the market, recovered and went past 61.8% retracement line around 2250 (that's where the index turned back down in January) and now seems to be on its way to 100% full retracement.

On 10 year chart, Nasdaq seems to be at a "Make or Break" place. The index is currently hitting the upper trendline from 2000 high. It is at a logical place to turn back down again. An ultra-slow slow stochastics (133) shows Nasdaq as an index has been a dead money for the past 10 years. Even now, it has barely emerged from oversold condition, with MACD finally coming back to zero.

We shall see. I think I will start watching Naz again and see how it behaves from here. And I'm hoping AAPL will pull back after iPad launch...

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