Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Where Is This Listless Market Going?

I can't make head or tail out of it. The best position still seems to be in cash, until we see more definite trend. I am being caught holding long positions (gold, silver, miners, oil) but I am sitting on them because my costs are low (except for oil).

I looked at the 3-year weekly chart of Dow that captures the market top in October 2007. As one of the indicators I put "volume by price" as background, and noticed a very interesting thing.

Take a look at the volume by price when the market started to tank in late September 2008. A tiny volume for such a big drop. The volume didn't reach a panic size until Dow hit between 8,000 and 8,500. Many investors didn't unload their holdings until Dow hit that interim bottom. Not only that. It looks there was more buying than selling as Dow rapidly descended. It's nearly 30% drop in the index, but many individual stocks fared far worse.

For those who didn't sell at the bottom of that drop, a sudden, accelerated decline in February 2009 must have been just too much. They dumped this time, probably, as soon as the index started to go down in earnest.

So, where are we at now? We are back to that very thin volume by price zone, between 10,350 (about 50% Fibonacci retracement) and 11,000. It may be easy for the index to go through this thin area, as there shouldn't be much resistance. Volume by price bar near 61.8% retracement, around 11,260, shows more selling volume than buying volume, so there may not be many sellers left if and when the index hits the area again.

My feeling is that Dow (and the US stock market) may still have an upside at least to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement area. But there are too many uncertainties in the market and the world outside the market that could easily torpedo TA and render it worthless. Greece, for example. S&P is saying Greece may be downgraded yet again, and the stock futures drop. Last I checked, Dow futures were down 58, S&P 500 futures down 7, Nasdaq futures down 12

But then again, miraculous clutch save may appear in the premarket tomorrow, and turn the indices around in a flash.

As I said, I can't make head or tail out of it, and I am annoyed that my gold holdings are being hammered down...

No comments:

Post a Comment