Monday, December 14, 2009

If Oil Is To Bounce, It'd Better Do It Now...

Here's a daily chart of UCO, double-long crude oil ETF. It's been bouncing within the channel (black lines), and it hit the lower line, yet again. Will it bounce? My bet is on the bounce, as the U.S. dollar is short-term overbought, and commodities oversold.

So I figured this might be a low-risk entry, and bought January call options (strike at $11) for a quick swing trade. My target is a bounce up to $11.75 area. There is a zone right above that level, full of gaps. If the dollar corrects some more and if traders become more optimistic about the elusive "recovery", it may go through that thin zone to slightly above $13.

The uncertainty is, again, the Fed FOMC meeting that starts on Tuesday, with the announcement on Wednesday after 2:00 PM EST. That almost always screws up the stock market movement.

No comments:

Post a Comment