Limitation of Technical Analysis

Tickerville's Quint Tatro (whom I took a webinar on TA from, and whom I've been using as one of my contra-indicators since April this year - sorry Quint) continues to be bearish.

He starts this Tape Talk, talking about how Friday's 3.5 hour market had a significant volume distribution, without even mentioning Dubai.

Tape Talk (11/29/09)

I'm wondering if this should be the last time that I even link to his analysis... (If you are his fan, make sure you bookmark his site.)

Without macro (financial, economic, political, even social) understanding (or at least an attempt), the investment/trading becomes reactive to the events (like Dubai) as they unfold, and technical analysis becomes justification after the fact.

Now the guys at Breakpointtrades.com, from which I receive free TA newsletters sent out Early Friday alert after Dubai debt crisis caused the U.S. stock market futures into deep red like it were September 2008 all over again. The alert arrived in my Inbox at 3:01AM PST on Friday, with 43 charts no less, so that we would be prepared mentally for a potential big gap down. They are also technical traders, but they seem to put TA in bigger context.

Early Friday Morning Market Newsletter Special Edition (11/27/09 Breakpointtrades.com)

I trimmed my holdings somewhat on Friday, but more of a housekeeping and not a panic selling. It was a gap down alright, but the indices went nowhere near what I was prepared for (at least not yet, it could still happen), and a peek into the Breakpointtrades.com guys' charts helped calm the nerve. (Disclosure: I'm not paid to recommend their site or their service.)

Batten Down the Hatches, Probably...

Thank you Dubai for the Thanksgiving surprise!

This is one of those events that defy technical analysis. You can't predict the event like this by looking at the chart. Asian markets are having a second day of severe down draught, with Hang Seng and Seol Composit leading the way. European bourses are sure to follow, which will be followed by the U.S. market. Dow futures are down 250 points as of 00:16 AM EST. I don't remember seeing the Dow futures this much in deep negative territory even in September/October of 2008.

The chart below is a 2-year Dow weekly chart, just to show the Fibonacci retracement from the March bottom to November top to see how low the index could fall. 61.8% line seems to offer a solid support, which is around 8,960. Back to the level in July. In between, 10,000 and 9,500 have some support, as they were resistance on the way up.



One of many things I regret for not having paid attention is Dubai's world-tallest skyscraper. When that building (still under construction) became the tallest in the world, it was September 1st, 2008. Right before everything went to hell in the stock markets worldwide. I had read about the "skyscraper index" back in January 2008, but I didn't connect.

It would be ironic if another Dubai incident (this time a threat of sovereign default) marks the beginning of a significant leg down in the market, which Elliott Wave people call P3, last leg of a bear market which will undercut the first leg low.

Dow Jones Intraday and Linear Regression

This is today's Dow Jones Industrial intraday. I was just watching the market today, mostly, and this is what I was watching: linear regression line.

I plotted the top line connecting the peaks, more or less, and the bottom line connecting the bottoms, more or less. I decided to ignore the spike down after 10:00 AM PST as reactionary low. I drew the center line right about the middle. And after 3:00 PM EST I thought, well I think they are going to park Dow right about 10,434. Sure enough, Dow ended the day at 10,433.

I've noticed that the Fibonacci retracement numbers and linear regression work better these days. Just my feeling. It could be because of those algo computers are programmed with numbers. I would be impressed if they are programmed to recognize patterns like "cup and handle"...

Nikkei and Dow, Since 1984

Japan's Nikkei must be the saddest stock index in the world. At least so it seems to me.

Nikkei is again (third time) lower than the level in 1984, and that's 25 years ago. "A lost decade"? Here we may be potentially talking about "lost three decades", and possibly hoping that it will stop at "three decades".

Japan's Nikkei Looks Sick

When Dow, All Ordinary, Hang Seng, BSE, just about every major index in the world jumped after the full moon in early September, Nikkei didn't join the party. It ended the month down. After the sharp correction worldwide in the second half of October, the indices are off to the races again after November full moon. Except Nikkei.


According to Bloomberg, currency traders are increasingly bearish on Japanese yen and betting against it, predicting 10% or more fall from the current level (around 90 yen/dollar). The new government (Democratic Party of Japan) is still learning its way in and around the system, but more government spending and falling tax revenue with a shrinking population doesn't augur well for their misguided efforts.

FXY is the Japanese yen ETF. EWJ is the ETF that tracks stocks on Tokyo Stock Exchange. You can short the ETFs, or buy put options on them if you share the bearish sentiment about the world's second largest economy.

Nasdaq Betas That Don't Come Back Down

With just about every analysts eager to call the top, the market marches on, bid or no bid. My portfolio has been rather stagnant for 2 months, with gains in precious metal stocks offsetting the weakness in financials. Probably a top is near, therefore, but I don't think the market will crash back to, say Dow 6,000, right away as some of them proclaim.

Why? Nasdaq "beta" stocks: AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, ISRG, PCLN.

They refuse so far to correct much. AAPL corrected the most after earning and filled the gap. But others, particularly AMZN and ISRG, hardly looked back, and has since resumed the upward march.


How much upside could there be for the major indices? Another 10%? 5%? I am debating whether it is worth to stay in the market, but when I look at these Nasdaq tech stocks it is tempting to believe this is a new bull market, in which you would buy stocks on the breakout from the high.

NYSE Summation Index (Cumulative) Still Bullish

It's not the kind of index you hear or see very often. This is one of the charts that the guys at Breakpointtrade.com use for the market's bigger trend. (I am signed up to receive their bi-weekly newsletter. These guys are good.)

I recreated it using Stockcharts.com. As you can see, it gave a buy signal at the end of March. It didn't pick the bottom precisely, but really very good enough signal to get in. Ever since, the index (cumulative) remains up-trend, and CCI set at 13 hasn't dipped below 100, i.e. no need to sell my long positions in a hurry, yet. S&P 500, which is plotted at the bottom of the chart, still manages to maintain the uptrend line since March. If you are not so much concerned about day to day fluctuation, this summation index gives a pretty good signal.


If you use it, make sure you plot the chart as "cumulative".

For those of you who want to know what the heck is the "summation" chart, here's the explanation from Stockcharts.com.

Beaver Moon Did It Again...

The U.S. stock market bounced on the full moon (Beaver Moon), yet again. Just when I started uneasy holding long positions after seeing high-volume selloffs (that clearly signal distribution - pros are getting out).

This moon cycle pattern was first mentioned back in September by one of the members (a very strange one, too) on the Yahoo SKF message board. I laughed, but I didn't sell out, partly because of his insistent comments. Another bounce occurred on October's full moon. And another on November's full moon, which has now sent Dow to 2009 high. This latest full moon, I learned, was considered the most powerful full moon in 100 years, according to this Indian guru. (The link was given to me by my primary physician.)


This is a daily Dow chart, marked with green arrows for full moons, and red arrows for new moons.

Please don't trade on the moon cycle unless you do your own DD (I don't know how you do DD on moon cycle but...) and are convinced of it. I am definitely not recommending anything here. It's lunatic, literally. And MACD and RSI both show negative divergence, although slow stochastics (60,3) is nicely above 80 again.

Negative divergence on a short-term daily chart usually indicate a correction is imminent, and I thought we would get that correction today. All we got was S&P500 down 0.07 points and Nasdaq down 2.98 points. Instead of selling off, Dow managed to go positive. What do I know? (Can't win against Goldman Sachs, who's doing "the God's work", can we?)

Expanding Wedges on VIX

I've read that an expanding wedge pattern near the top after a prolonged upward movement is bearish, a topping pattern.

What about an expanding wedge near the bottom, after prolonged downward movement? Is it bullish? Bearish? Anyone?

Because that seems to be what I'm seeing in the VIX daily chart. Not just the index movement, but also RSI, MACD, and slow stochastics (12,3).

Is the Rally from March Finally Over?

For the first time since I went long back in March, I am shopping for short ETFs.

The major indices dumped big time today, after a tepid attempt to reverse the trend yesterday. Since last Friday, Dow has lost 347 points, or 3.4%, S&P 500 lost 54 points or 4.9%, and Nasdaq lost 131 points or 6%.

September had a similar mini-crash that brought the indices to their 50-DMA. June was worse, to be sure, and the indices dipped below 50-DMA and 200-DMA (crossover was happening then, so it didn't take much to go below 200-DMA).

What I don't like about it this time is the behavior at the top, from October 19 to 23. The daily movement was loose and wide. 100 point reversals, big down day followed by big up day. What does that remind me of? The market top in October-November 2007, and September 2008 right before the crash.

This is a 7-month daily chart of Dow. Negative divergence between RSI, price, and money flow are more prominent and consistent. It decidedly broke the trend line from March low today, and can go down to the trend line from August. That trend line forms a rising, expanding wedge, which is bearish and indicating the topping action. Using the slow stochastics with (5,3) for short-term trend, the index is short-term oversold, which is about the only good thing about the chart for market bulls.


Goldman Sachs lowered their estimate on the 3rd quarter GDP today, one day before the announcement. Market reaction to economic/financial news (ever since the new moon, come to think about it) has been negative: good news is perceived as not good enough, and bad news is perceived as worse. If this trend continues, the reaction to GDP number may be negative, no matter what the actual number will be. If that happens, it may finally be the "batten down the hatches" time, and time to make money on the short side.

Still, stochastics is short-term oversold, and the put/call ratio (a contra-indicator) has spiked up to 1.11. A bounce may happen soon. Another contra-indicator is that too many traders and pundits are now very bearish, calling the top for the year (even Jim Cramer).

Well, the proverbial broken clock is right twice a day...

Now It's AMZN's Turn!

Nasdaq beta stocks are back with vengeance. First was Google (GOOG), then Apple (AAPL), and today was Amazon (AMZN). It announced a steller quarter result after hours and the stock jumped to $106. In this deep recession, the company's profit jumped 62%. If the AH price holds at Friday's closing, it will be ALL TIME HIGH for the stock.

This is the monthly chart of AMZN since its IPO. I don't care to do the TA analysis on a wild-looking thing like this. I'm just impressed. Usually when a stock falls from the crest (like Nasdaq dot-com bubble high), it doesn't recover. But this one did, and is about to take out the previous high.

I've been the customer ever since AMZN opened its virtual door. Its CEO, much like AAPL's CEO, has just kept at it, instead of selling out, retiring, or going into philanthropy.



About the only thing I can say about the chart is that the trendline held at the bottom, and it was a buy when it bounced off that line in November last year, at $34. It is quite possible that a few years from now I may be asking myself, "So AMZN was only $100. What was I thinking?"
Maybe I should think the unthinkable and buy the breakout.

Nasdaq (and Dow and S&P) at 2009 High

To the chagrin and frustration for the bears, the stock market keeps going up. Today, all three major indices marked the 2009 high with healthy gains but subdued volume (Op-Ex fatigue, maybe).

Barring disaster overnight (and premarket tomorrow), tomorrow's market looks brighter as Apple (AAPL) announced a blow-out earning after hours (the company sold more Macs and iPhones in any quarter in company's history), and the stock is currently trading over $200.

I haven't looked at Nasdaq chart since June (as I don't have tech stocks like I used to), so maybe this is a good time to do that to figure out whether every bear is saying is true ("the market is topping").

The first thing I notice about Nasdaq is the volume. Unlike other two indices (Dow and S&P500), Nasdaq's volume has remained robust. So far, I don't see negative divergence between RSI, price action, volume, CCI, slow stochastics. This is a very strong chart. About the only thing that makes me nervous is the extremely steep ascent from March low (steepest of the three major indices).

Around March 09 bottom, that was clearly a double bottom formation with handle, and the handle break in late May held. I should have paid more attention to Nasdaq around that time, for obviously easier money was in Nasdaq.

The index is right now between 50% and 61.8% Fib retracements, and 61.8% retracement is a logical target (2251). If 61.8% retracement is taken out (75 points away), it could go back up to 2007 high, I suppose. Some of the index components are already in that territory, about to take out all-time high (AAPL, BIDU, AMZN). Semiconductor sector is not acting well, despite the steller result from Intel (INTC). We'll see.

I don't quite see the topping formation on Nasdaq. The ascent has been steep, yes, but so far none of the indicators show overbought condition or trendline break. I personally prefer it would go sideways for a while, but what I think counts nothing toward making the market.

It's been a scary ride holding long positions (some positions as early as March) but I'm still holding most of them. Scary but lucky ride so far.

USO Jumps

one day after I sold out my call options (at $0.90) at a 10% loss. If I had waited till today, I would have gotten out with 60% to 100% profit.

Lesson: If I intended to be a replacement for DXO, I should have bought longer-dated options, not October (duh). I could have gotten UCO, double-long oil ETF.

As October options expire this week, I was under pressure to get out yesterday when USO perked up. I probably should have done some quick TA to see if there was more upside. But with US dollar tanking like it did yesterday I thought the rebound would come today and the option was expiring fast. US dollar rebound came, albeit weak, but oil keeps going up.

Oh well. It could have been much worse. At one point in October, that particular call option was $0.20.

(Still it irritates me... Missed by the day!!)

TLR!!!

So far so good. The price held on Monday, and on Tuesday the stock jumped nearly 30% on a high volume, probably on this news:

Timberline Resources: Pump Up the Volume
(10/13/09 Market Watch)

"COEUR D'ALENE, Idaho (TheStreet) -- Timberline Resources (TLR Quote) shares rallied sharply higher Tuesday on heavy volume after the company increased its gold mineralization estimate on a joint venture project. "

"Timberline Resources said it has completed an updated calculation of the estimated gold mineralization at its Butte Highlands Gold Project joint venture, increasing its total anticipated mineralization to over 750,000 ounces of gold at an overall grade of 0.26 ounces per ton. "

Gold hitting a new high of $1069 per ounce helped.

TLR

With part of the proceeds from ABK sale, I bought another bit stock. Not for investment, just like ABK wasn't, but for trade. More like gambling. If I lose, I lose. If I gain, I may gain big. (I did put in the stop so that I wouldn't completely lose.)

The stock is TLR, Timberline Resources Corp. It is a gold, silver and zinc prospector based in Coeur D' Alene, Idaho. I was watching the stock while it was spending the entire September around 70 cents, while the other gold miners advanced. Then it took off all of a sudden on Tuesday (10/6), and jumped to over $1.30 on Wednesday (10/7) on a gigantic volume for the company. Then it sold off for two days, and stopped at $1.05 on Friday before it rebounded back to $1.12.

The chart is a 3-year weekly chart to get some perspective, as the short-term daily is just too wild to figure anything out.



$1.30-1.40 looks to be a long-term support/resistance line, and sure enough the stock retreated when it hit $1.39. RSI and MACD showed positive divergence vis-a-vis stock price late last year and earlier this year. Slow stochastics at 60,3 (long-term trend indicator) has popped up above 20 for the first time since June 2008.

From the chart setup, the stock could go to $2.50-2.90 area. Point and figure chart of TLR says it may go above $4.

I bought it at $1.10 and put in the stop loss order at 87 cents, which is the September high. I think penny stocks are penny for a reason, and it is quite possible that my stop gets hit on Monday. If that happens, oh well. I will have still retained the profit (though reduced) from ABK sale.