CENX for Aluminum Shortage Play?

(Well RIMM was a dud...)

I bought a small position on CENX today, after seeing it was breaking out on a larger volume from a nice consolidation pattern that also has a MACD positive divergence.



Then I just read this news at Kitco.com:

"(Kitco News) -Harbor Intelligence looks for three-months aluminum to hit $2,400 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange in the weeks ahead. Harbor cites expectations that Chinese output will fall, given two years of “negative economics for producers” and pressure on smelters to cut production to meet energy-saving and environmental goals. The most recent data implies that China lost 6%, or a net 982,752 metric tons, of annualized aluminum output in July and August. Meanwhile, demand for semi-aluminum products (autos, construction, etc., which are the main customers of primary output) in China is rising, with a monthly gain of 14% in August, which amounts to annualized output of 2.9 million tons, Harbor says. Ultimately, demand for primary and scrap aluminum will accelerate due to a pick-up in final demand and re-stocking needs for semi-aluminum producers. “Our models show increasing risks of a strong rally in aluminum prices in the final quarter of this year,” Harbor says. A rise toward $2,400 in the fourth quarter will also exert upward pressure on regional aluminum premiums around the world, Harbor adds."

My buy point was $11.62. Trailing stop at 6% loss, first target is a gap-fill above $13.

Rally No One Believes Enters 11th Month

The rally no one has really believed in all along since March 2009 has now entered the 11th month, and it is showing the sign of further upside. I said here, here, and here on this blog that the rally might last longer than most people were expecting, and it did.

I've been long pretty much all the way, though I've been shaken out here and there (I'm a chicken little). The only reason I would be selling some of the positions would be to raise money to buy stocks that would likely to move faster than what I have.

There are so many technical breakouts on individual stocks almost every day since late December that it is impossible to be in them all. My most recent purchase was today, call options on North American Palladium (PAL). JASO went lower than what I would have liked, but bounced right back, making 50% gain on my options. CENX that I bought almost on a whim on the breakout continues to go higher. All I do on this stock is to keep raising my stop limit every day. I've heard about a new industrial metal ETF, which should be good for both CENX and PAL, and probably MTL. UCO is up further since I sold my call options. I switched to more liquid options on USO, out of money April calls (strike at USO $50; currently USO is about $40) just as a crisis hedge (Middle East is volatile). Even those are making money.

I don't have enough funds to play, but just from TA, financials seems to be ready to break out. Individual names in financials have already started to break out. Among too-big-to-fail banks, I like Morgan Stanley (MS) setup.

Since I cannot be in all and I don't have enough funds, I might as well throw out some names that I've been watching. Many of them have already broken out to the upside, but you could wait for backtesting. Just for your entertainment, and none of them is recommendation. Please do your own due diligence.

JLL
MS
GBG
IVN
AFFX
SQM (just about to break the resistance at $40)
BLL (right at $51-52 resistance)
TUP (resistance $50)
URE
Canadian oil/gas trusts (I have PVX that I've had for long time for dividend, it spiked 6% today)

Good luck and good trade. For now, buying the breakout has been working, which I tend to take it as a sign of a bull market in stocks. Many people these days say that strategy is outdated, that it doesn't work when the market is this manipulated (whether by the Fed or Vampire Squid). I'm just saying it's been working, particularly these past 3 weeks or so. But remember, the stock market IS NOT the economy.